Post episode 5 Game of Thrones catch up

Watching episode 5 (The Door) was a slightly agonizing: not because the episode was bad (it was actually quite good) but because some of my previous predictions (or at least the details of some of the predictions and not the outcomes) seemed to come off the rails a bit. Arya’s choice may be tied to a common actress rather than Jon (I updated my Arya prediction with this sidestep), although I would argue the actor troop’s portrayal of Arya’s family members Ned, Sansa and even Tyrion’s demeanor may have set her off on a path to correct public perception of people she still loves (regardless of whether she is trying to pretend she is not Arya Stark anymore).

I appear to be wrong about at least one other predictions details (possibly not the result) about Margaery. Was the secret of the High Sparrow about Margaery’s atonement or about Tyrell’s involvement in the assassination of King Joffrey? The next week trailer seems to show that it is the former, but I am still holding out that the really damning secret is still about the assassination. I’m leaning towards being probably wrong about this prediction now though because of the preview appearing to show an almost Atonement for Margaery directly before the troops come in (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ePO5JXVULM).

And Sansa Stark’s story? I unfortunately predicted that Sansa would be a bit irrational about Petyr when she saw him again, but I didn’t expect her to sever ties with him (though hopefully briefly, since Petyr is a good companion to have until Daenerys arrives in Westeros). She wants Winterfell, but she turns down what fans estimate is an army of 30k+, more than 10x the number she currently has through Jon, because she blames Petyr Baelish for Ramsey’s torture. The Knights of the Vale could have single-handedly ruined Ramsay’s force, but now she is forcing Jon to exclusively recruit from the other families in the North instead. Anyone who has played and been played by the game for this long should understand that you don’t look a gift horse like this in the mouth. He should have been forgiven for this play of his with Ramsay, no matter how irredeemable Littlefinger’s ambition might be as an objective thing, the game itself is only won through alliances. This emotional, instinctual repulsion of Petyr is typically rewarded in GoT with getting people you like killed. Then there is Sansa sending Brienne away, one of the only pure people that can and will protect her, and opening herself up to trouble. Why? Because she’s with Jon, a person she doesn’t trust enough to tell about her meeting with Petyr? I think Petyr will come to her aid anyway with his armies, but maybe not. Maybe his ambition takes him elsewhere for a bit. I worry Sansa is playing the game less wisely than she could be, and Jon will have a much tougher time at Winterfell because of it.

The new Fire priestess Kinvarra that talked with Tyrion and Varys? She’ll help fill in the power structure of Daenerys and probably provide more backstory about the gift of fire through the Dragons and maybe even the relationship it holds in fighting the White Walkers. However, I have a feeling Daenerys is going to come back and have immediate anger and mistrust issues with both the fire priestess and Varys, whom she still believes tried to spy on her and poison her as an enemy. Perhaps her recent emotional scene with Jora Mormont is enough to open herself to forgiving someone like Varys more easily. I expect she will forgive Varys, possibly after Tyrion vouches for him. I think she’s going to be less forgiving of Tyrion’s approach with the masters, and perhaps that will cause another Sons of the Harpy revolt which is likely to kill someone important (let’s hope not Greyworm or Missandei, but this may be the season for killing off the help, as seen with Hodor–though we know from the producers that Hodor’s fate was directly told to them by Martin).